I’m on a bit of a numbers kick these days. I’m fascinated by big numbers — really huge, staggeringly incomprehensible numbers.
I’ve been watching the promises that Australian politicians have been making in the run-up to election (Australia votes on November 24) with a mixture of admiration and horror. Admiration, because I’ve never seen such brazen efforts to buy votes; horror, because I’ve never seen such brazen efforts to buy votes.
American politicians sell themselves for campaign contributions. It’s a pretty foul business. American politicians pretend that the money they get from donors doesn’t influence their votes, but nobody really believes them.
Australian politicians, though, do something a little different. They use public money to buy airtime: over the past few months, the Howard government has blanketed the airwaves with ads touting the federal government’s “Work Choices” legislation, the government’s role in making the internet safe for children, and other partisan messages disguised as public service announcements. That’s bad enough: according to the Australian, the government has spent AU$121 million on ads for Work Choices alone. This is corrupt, as Labor points out. (Why, incidentally, do Australians spell “Labor” l-a-b-o-r, and “harbor” h-a-r-b-o-u-r?)
But the real corruption has to do with the promises the major parties continue to make to an Australian electorate that seems to expect this sort of thing. On October 15–the day after John Howard called the election–his ever-smirking Treasurer, Peter Costello, offered up a $34 billion tax cut over five years. This is pretty serious cash: it works out to roughly $1700 per capita over the five years, or $340 per person per year. Pretty nifty. A few days later, Labor offered its own tax plan: $31 billion in tax cuts, and a further $2.3 billion in education tax rebates. These were opening gambits, though: since then, both parties have promised $4 billion for old people, along with an absolutely astounding list of nickel-and-dime projects calculated to buy votes in particular electoral districts. (My favorite: the Liberals have promised $6 million for a crocodile farming business.)
All this is, of course, appalling. Most Australian voters seem not to care too much about these fantastic figures. Nor do they seem to believe them. Peter Garrett, the Labor Party “Shadow Minister” for Climate Change, Environment & Heritage, joked to a journalist that Labor would change all these policies once they get into power. There was a bit of a kerfuffle about this for a day or two; Garrett had to make clear that he was just joking; but I don’t think anyone really believes that all these promises will be kept.
The funny thing about all this is what happens if Labor or the Liberals do keep these promises. The Liberals have been telling everyone who will listen (and lots of people who don’t want to listen, but can’t avoid the incessant ads) that a Labor government means higher interest rates. Labor points–with unseemly schadenfreude–to six consecutive interest rate rises under the Coalition government. Funny thing is, of course, that interest rates aren’t set by the government directly. But they are sensitive to inflation. And while I’m no economist, it does seem possible that pouring tens of billions of dollars of cash into an economy where real estate prices are out of sight, were gasoline (oops–petrol) prices are rising steadily, and where food prices are being pushed ever-higher by a long drought might just fuel that inflation. And central bankers have one response to inflation: raise interest rates. It’s going to be fun to watch, isn’t it?
A final word: if you vote for one or the other of these parties because they promise to cut your taxes, help you raise crocodiles, or give you a new bridge to nowhere (I know–that was in Alaska–but go with it, ok?)–then you deserve the government you get.
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